Source: insurancebusinessmag.com

Guy Carpenter has released its 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season outlook, forecasting an active season with named storm totals expected to exceed long-term averages. The projection anticipates storm counts significantly above the 1950–2023 average and higher than those recorded during the active period from 1995–2023.

According to Guy Carpenter, elevated sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico – referred to locally as the Gulf of America – and the anticipated shift toward ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are expected to contribute to increased hurricane development.

This elevated activity is driven by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea and a neutral Pacific water temperature pattern, which historically increases Texas’s risk of storm impacts. The 2024 hurricane season saw Hurricane Beryl become the earliest recorded Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic.

The company also highlighted a growing trend in rapid intensification events, where a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed increases by at least 30 knots (35 mph) within a 24-hour period. Warmer-than-average temperatures along the Atlantic coast could further influence the frequency and severity of such developments in 2025.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also forecasted an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 potentially becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).

While seasonal forecasts can indicate the potential for increased activity,
Guy Carpenter noted that landfall outcomes are primarily influenced by specific weather conditions during each storm’s lifecycle. The firm stressed that even highly active seasons can result in a broad range of outcomes for insured losses, from less than US$1 billion to more than US$100 billion.

In the first quarter of 2025, global insured losses from natural disasters reached approximately US$53 billion, marking the second-highest first-quarter total on record. The largest driver of insured losses was the California wildfires, which accounted for approximately US$38 billion, or 71% of the total.

Guy Carpenter advised property and casualty (re)insurers to remain vigilant, as landfall events – especially those involving rapidly intensifying systems – pose considerable uncertainty and risk, regardless of broader seasonal expectations.